It’s that time again. A new year is here, which means a volatile 2018 is in the rearview mirror. The markets suffered a steep drop at the end of last year after climbing steadily through the first three quarters. A number of factors contributed to the markets’ fourth-quarter tumble, including tariffs, interest rate hikes and trouble in the tech sector.
 
A new year doesn’t mean those challenges are gone, but it does represent a fresh start. And if history is any guide, January can be a strong month for investors. According to a study from LPL Research, in the 68 years from 1950 through 2017, January has been a positive month for the S&P 500 41 times. It’s been negative 27 times.1
 
As any investor knows, history doesn’t guarantee future performance. However, there does seem to be a correlation between market performance in January and the rest of the year.

How do January returns impact the rest of the year?
 
According to LPL Research, there’s a relationship between January returns and market returns over the remainder of the year. Its research showed that during years in which there was a positive January return, the market had an average return of 12.2 percent over the next 11 months. When the January return was negative, the S&P 500 returned only 1.2 percent the rest of the year.1
 
If January returns are more than 5 percent, the correlation is even more pronounced. In those years, the market had an average return of 15.8 percent over the next 11 months. In fact, when January has a return of more than 5 percent, the rest of the year is positive 91.7 percent of the time.1

What is the January effect?
 
Why has January been positive more often than not? And why does January’s return seem to impact the rest of the year? There are no definitive answers to these questions, but there are theories.

There’s an idea called the “January effect,” which suggests that January returns may be the product of tax strategy. Investors sell stocks in December to harvest tax losses before the end of the year. That depresses prices and creates a buying opportunity in January. Because investors sold at the end of the year, there’s cash on the table to buy in the beginning of the next year.
 
Of course, this is just a theory. There’s no way to conclusively prove whether the January effect is a real phenomenon. Even if it could be proved, it’s never wise to change your long-term investment strategy based on short-term opportunities.
 
If you’re concerned about the volatility in 2018 or the coming year, now is a great time to meet with a financial professional. They can help you review your strategy and possibly make changes that reduce your risk exposure and allow you to take advantage of opportunities.
 
Ready to evaluate your investment strategy? Let’s talk about it. Contact us today at DSM Financial. We can help you analyze your needs and goals and implement a plan. Let’s connect soon and start the conversation.
 
1https://www.thestreet.com/story/14469889/1/stock-market-s-strong-january-performance-bodes-well-for-the-rest-of-the-year.html
 
Licensed Insurance Professional. This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation. By providing your information, you give consent to be contacted about the possible sale of an insurance or annuity product. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional. The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency.
 
18345 - 2018/12/31

A new year is here, and with it comes a flood of year-end tax documents like W-2s, 1099s and others. Before you know it, the April 15 tax filing deadline will be upon us, and it will be time to submit your return.

It’s always wise to meet with your financial professional at the beginning of the year. It gives you an opportunity to discuss the past year, your goals for the coming year and your tax strategy. However, a consultation with your financial professional could be especially helpful this year.
 
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was signed into law in late 2017 by President Trump. While some of its changes went into effect last year, 2018 was the first full calendar year under the new law. The return you file in April will likely be the first that reflects much of the law’s changes. Below are a few of the biggest changes and how they could affect your return:

Increased Standard Deduction
 
The new tax law impacted a wide range of credits and deductions, from the deduction of medical expenses to credits for child care. Those who itemize deductions may have felt the brunt of these changes.
 
However, the tax law significantly increased the standard deduction. In 2017 the standard deduction was $6,350 for single filers and $12,700 for married couples. The new law increased those numbers to $12,000 and $24,000, respectively.1
 
Given the changes to itemized deductions and the increased standard deduction, you may want to consult with a financial or tax professional before you file your return. If you’ve traditionally itemized deductions in the past, that may no longer make sense.

New Tax Brackets
 
The new tax law also made significant changes to the tax brackets. There are still seven different brackets, just as there were before the passage of the law. And the lowest rate is still 10 percent. The top income tax rate is down to 37 percent, however, from 39.6 percent.2 There are similar cuts throughout the rest of the brackets as well.
 
The law also made changes to the income levels for each bracket. Generally, the bracket levels were increased throughout the tax code, which means you have to earn more before moving into a higher bracket. Under the old tax code, for example, a married couple earning $250,000 would be in the 33 percent bracket. Under the new law, that same couple would be in the 24 percent bracket. A single individual earning $80,000 would be in the 28 percent bracket under the old law but is now in the 22 percent bracket.2
​
Itemized Deduction Changes
 
As mentioned, the new tax law increased the standard deduction amounts. However, those increases came at the expense of many itemized deductions. The new law eliminated or reduced many common deductions, including those for state and local taxes, real estate taxes, mortgage and home equity loan interest, and even fees to accountants and other advisers.
 
However, there could be other opportunities to boost your itemized deductions above the standard deduction level. Charitable donations are still deductible, as are medical expenses assuming they exceed the 7.5 percent threshold. If you’re a business owner, you can deduct many of your expenses, including up to 20 percent of your income assuming you meet earnings thresholds.3
 
Ready to review your financial and tax strategy? Let’s connect soon and talk about taxes and your entire financial picture. Contact us today at DSM Financial. We can help you analyze your needs and goals and implement a plan.
 
1https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/taxes/standard-deduction/
2https://www.hrblock.com/tax-center/irs/tax-reform/new-tax-brackets/
3https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/know-these-6-federal-tax-changes-to-avoid-a-surprise-in-2019
 
Licensed Insurance Professional. This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation. By providing your information, you give consent to be contacted about the possible sale of an insurance or annuity product. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional. The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency.
 
18326 - 2018/12/26